Baseball truly is a game of numbers. Its not just a game about BA, OPS and ERA. With the San San Diego Padres its just as much about prospect rankings, their perceived value and what a super star player is worth in return.
For years the Padres have been a farm system for all of major league baseball. In the 80s and 90s players like Ozzie Smith, Fred McGriff, Sandy Alomar, Roberto Alomar, Ken Caminiti among others, have all came up through the Padres farm system, and ran through the Murph.
The Padres are one of 5 teams still to never have won a World Series. And they move players around like a monopoly board hoping that they eventually land on Park Place or Boardwalk. History has shown though, they swing and miss with this approach more than they make contact. And when you dive deep into the players that have been exchanged in the Soto trades, how much has San Diego mortgaged with there player development, all for a rental player in Soto. While Juan put up admirable numbers and was a huge draw for the fans and the teams attendance. Not being able to sign him long term, it can be argued that this has positioned the Nationals and White Sox with prospects better than what San Diego netted in value.
Let’s dive into how Juan Soto has changed the dynamic of the Padres farm system in just 2 seasons.
Washington Nationals / San Diego Padres Trade
Grade (B): San Diego Receives – Juan Soto
Grade (A): Nationals Receive – Luke Voit (FA Mets), CJ Abrams (SS), Mackenzie Gore (SP), Prospects – James Woods MLB #14 – #2 Nationals, Robert Hassell III #8 Nationals, Jarlin Susana #10 Nationals
Just based on this haul of talent, I lean towards Washington winning this trade. Soto no longer on the Padres and a foundation of top tier prospects has Washington in a great position with controllable players and star potential. James Woods, is that guy, and has shown this spring, he alone was the prized pick up in that trade. Throw in a #3 Rotation arm in Mackenzie Gore, and a Starting SS (Abrams) with 5 Tools. Long term, this trade has Washington feeling very good about moving on from Juan, and working with AJ Preller.
San Diego Padres / NY Yankees
Grade (B+): NY Yankees Receive – Juan Soto (OF) & Trent Grisham (OF)
Grade (B): San Diego Receives – Michael King (SP), Jhonny Brito (SP), Kyle Higashioka (C), Prospects – Drew Thorpe #85 MLB #5 Padres, Randy Vasquez #12 Padres
On paper I lean towards San Diego squeezing out as much as they could from NY and winning this trade. Thorpe is the key piece here, as he projects as a top end of the rotation arm, and easily replaces Gore who they lost to the Nationals as someone for the middle of 24′ season or the 25′ Rotation. King will be the #4 Starter and Brito is competing with Waldren. Higashoika will be a back up and has no real future beyond that with San Diego. Ethan Salas is the future backstop and Campusano will start until Salas makes his MLB Debut.
Chicago White Sox / San Diego Padres
Grade (A): Padres Receive – Dylan Cease
Grade (B+): White Sox Receive – Prospects – Drew Thorpe #85 MLB #3 White Sox, Sammy Zavala #7 White Sox, Jairo Iriarte #9 White Sox, Steven Wilson (NR)
The center piece of the Yankee deal with Soto, now lands on the Southside of Chicago. Joining Thorpe in Chi Town are Sammy Zavala and Jairo Iriarte… 3 of the Padres Top 10 Prospects head out for an Ace in Dylan Cease. Arguably the best arm on the market, and has a team friendly $8 Million dollar salary for 2024, and one more arbitration year. With 2 years of control, San Diego nets what it needs for its rotation to compete in what will be one of the most challenging divisions in baseball this season. Having kept its Prized Top 4 Prospects (Salas, Merrill, Snelling, and Lesko), they essentially flipped Juan Soto for Dylan Cease. That’s a huge WIN!!!
But here’s my take…
Soto didn’t elevate San Diego into the Playoffs in two years… The team was forced to take out loans at the end of the 2023 season to help with player payroll, and after all of this, it netted you Dylan Cease for 2 years.
San Diego when its all said and done, these things to happen… Cease needs to sign long term in San Diego, yesterday’s trade needs to prove it has long term value. The Padres can’t continue to trade for player only for 1 to 2 years of service and then repeat the cycle of mortgaging its Farm System in hopes of finding that next guy as a replacement piece. Time will tell who actually won the Nationals trade, but sending off James Woods, looks like AJ Preller gave up way more than what he got in return. Ask yourself this Padre Fan, looking at all the moving pieces since the initial Soto Deal, would you rather have Dylan Cease today and 1.5 years of Juan Soto. Or would you rather have Gore, Abrams, Woods, and Hassell. As a fan, having star power will always out weigh prospects. So I’m going with Soto and Cease, how can you not get excited about that?
Is your team better today since that trade? Are you better than that team from LA with this current roster? Or is having James Woods hitting 3rd and Gore in your rotation in 2024 the better move?
There’s no perfect science to trading prospects, and what the return value is or will be. In the end, a prospect in baseball is just that. Someone with potential, who may just be the next Juan Soto. Or on the flip side, he could be the next Todd Van Poppel. IYKYK
10YardSlant 
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